The direct negotiations offered by the Obama administration to Iran can find traction only if US stops shifting the goalposts, says Saurabh Kumar ShahiThe Annual Munich Security Conference is generally a mundane affair. A nice photo-op with sumptuous Bavarian meals, the conference does little more than improving the balance sheet of Hotel Bayerischer Hof, which has hosted it since the days people did take a little interest in it. But this year, it was destined to come into the limelight. After all, it was here that the US Vice President Joe Biden revealed that if the officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran were determined and set for serious talks, the US would be in the position to reciprocate the sentiments through the direct talks over the country’s nuclear energy program. He added, for good measure, that the “negotiations are not merely held for the sake of negotiations.” Fair enough.
Iran's reaction to the statement was measured. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi maintained that the US must first prove its good intentions before the talks are undertaken. “They should not be aiming the gun on the one hand, while on the other hand, claim to be ready for talks and such contradictions must be resolved,” he added.
The upcoming P5+1-Iran talks in Kazakhstan will pave way for further direct negotiations with the US. However, the proposal as well as its seriousness needs to be analysed with measured excitement. The similar diplomatic maneuvers in the past have failed to bear fruit. However, a direct talk between the two nations, which severed ties following the 1979 Revolution, is indeed a big announcement.
But before that is achieved, the talks in Kazakhstan need to close the gap between the preconditions that both parties have set. Let's look at the last round. Last year in May in Baghdad, the P5+1 demanded that Iran scale back uranium enrichment to 20 per cent purity, which according to them was the most worrisome trend as far as Iranian nuclear program was concerned. Mind you, Iran, a signatory of NPT, has the right to enrich it to further levels considering every reactor is under IAEA supervisions. The demand from P5+1 has no legal basis, but it is still a preconditions for the talks to progress.
However, in return, P5+1 expressed absolutely no desire of offering any relief from the unilateral or UNSC mandate sanctions. Naturally, Iran bid the next rounds of talks adieu at Moscow.
The gap between the demands still persists. Mahdi Mohammadi, a member of Iran's negotiating team, maintained that to start with, the US will have to accept Iran's “right to enrich”, followed by removal of all unilateral sanctions by US and of course EU.
However, the West has indicated that they will offer a better bargain this time. British Foreign Secretary William Hague let the media know that P5+1 will put what he termed an “updated and credible” proposal and admitted that the “need to make progress is increasingly urgent”. Similarly, Russia's chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, was confident that the talks will bring “if not an outright breakthrough – then serious progress”.
Under the circumstances, US' move appears curious. The appointment of John Kerry and Chuck Hagel is indicative that the US is willing to stick to diplomacy for the time being at least.
Says Abolqasem Qasemzadeh, a Tehran based expert who has watched the move closely, “Obama believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not one of the weak states of the Middle East, but on the contrary, enjoys the highest degree of military power among the regional Muslim states. In addition, Iran sways pervasive influence on all Muslim communities in the Middle East. The experiences of Afghanistan and Lebanon have taught the Americans that Tehran is the gravity center of any possible solution to many problems in the Middle East and assistance from the Islamic Republic is the key to resolution of those problems. Therefore, new signals sent by Obama for bilateral negotiations with Iran are serious and stem from the United States' assessment of Iran's position in the Middle East as well as the high influence that Tehran sways on the Muslim communities.”
However, there is another opinion as well. Some experts suggest that it is typical of the West to offer talks while tightening the noose of sanctions at the same time. In fact, interestingly, just a couple of days after Biden's announcement, US expanded the sanctions by bringing in more sectors under its ambit. Many Iranian officials suggest that this shifting of goalposts is chronic and is detrimental to trust building.
Russia on its part had devised a plan that appeared lucrative to the Iranians. Foreign Minister Lavrov revealed a “step-by-step” approach that can bridge the gap between both the positions. According to this plan, Iran was expected to revive negotiations to dispel the concerns of the IAEA and expect to be rewarded in the process by a partial removal of sanctions. Meanwhile, EU too drafted and revealed a separate three-stage plan. At least both these plans are not non-starters like the previous proposals. But how much traction will any of them find in the real negotiations will be interesting to see.
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