Friday, May 3, 2013

29 suitors, 1 tuxedo

RBI should have 29 different interest rates for 29 different states based on their growth patterns and the globally-practised Taylor’s law

The RBI’s interest rate fixing in India is a scattershot approach, which assumes that the country is uniform, which is not the case in reality. A uniform interest rate, therefore, is a wasteful proposition in a country that varies from the prosperity of Punjab to the utter neglect and backwardness of Tripura – both economically and socially. Progressive states like Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have high per capita income, low level of hunger, better infrastructure and low poverty rate, thus inspiring confidence in the minds of investors. On the other hand, states like Orissa, Rajasthan, Bihar, et al find it difficult to attract investment. In this light, the current system of blanket interest rate/lending rate is clearly out of sync.

Instead of implementing a uniform pan-India interest rate, the RBI must impose higher interest rates in states that offer business opportunities to investors on a platter and offer discounted rates for investors opting to invest in regions that are still not progressive. Gujarat is another manufacturing power house, but unlike Punjab, it is an industrialized economy with a very high growth rate and should attract higher interest rate from RBI. If we focus on the growth trend line among these states, we figure out that between 2006-07 and 2011-12, Haryana (growth rate between 17.1% and 21.66%), Tamil Nadu (growth rate between 12.98% and 20.44%), and Maharashtra (growth rate between 11.39% and 20.38%) are among the forerunners of the country’s growth trajectory. Thus, RBI should push up the lending rates in proportion to the growth pattern in these states.

On the other side are middle income states like Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and West Bengal. Andhra Pradesh is mainly driven by agriculture (even though there is a considerable concentration of IT and manufacturing units in and around Hyderabad), Kerala is driven by agriculture and tourism, while West Bengal is languishing with hundreds of sick manufacturing units. These states are mainly agriculture-based, where high interest rates can further exacerbate the problems that they face. Even though Andhra Pradesh and Kerala had a decent run in growth with 2011-12 growth rates being 14.82% and 17.94% respectively, they have some distance to go to catch up with more advanced states. West Bengal, on the other hand, has had a middle-of-the-road growth projection between 13.65% and 18.6% in the last 6 years.

The laggards are the BIMARU states and North East with low per capita SDP and low growth rate. The longer this impasse endures, the harder it will be to recover. Bihar (which is at the bottom of the table), however, has started a recovery of sorts, clocking 20.39% growth in 2011-12. However, it is on small base that can wither away as the base expands. Orissa, with 8.49% growth (2011-12), Jharkhand with 11.89% and North East with a consistently depressed growth rate of below 10% are consistent bugbears for our policy makers. Needless to add, interest rates must be lowest in these zones that badly need a breath of fresh air on structural reforms.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
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IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
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Thursday, May 2, 2013

“Let us do something big first!”

He makes an energy drink named ‘Five Hour Energy’, and his company Living Essentials has a current annual turnover of around US $1.3 billion. Forbes magazine has named him amongst the richest Indian billionaires in the US. In this interaction with B&E’s Onkareshwar Pandey, Manoj Bhargava talks about Indian and US politics and his decision to donate most of his wealth to charity.

B&E: You basically hail from Lucknow. Tell us more about your life’s journey from Lucknow to the US?
Manoj Bhargava (MB): I would prefer to say little because I have had little attachment to my personal life. I was born in Lucknow and studied at the Mayanagar School till class 6. After that, my father decided to send me abroad. So for preparations, I spent three years in Mussoorie, while my Dad went there in 1967 only. My father had a big publishing business there. It was called Upper India Publishing House, which published books taught in various colleges. My father had written many books under the Bhargava De name. But with time, everything went downhill, though he was still among the top people in Lucknow. Our grandfather was a leader from the Awadh region. He used to get many hand-written letters from Mahatma Gandhi, who had also sought the help of our grandfather in those days. Even after out grandfather’s demise, many leaders from various political parties used to come home. Even Chief Ministers and Ministers used to frequent our house before and after being sworn in for support. That’s all more or less how it was. Afterwards, we moved to Philadelphia in the US, and I finished my education from there.

B&E: Tell us more about your initial days in US. Were things smooth from the beginning?
MB: In those days, you could not take money abroad. We had nothing when we reached there, but we were very happy and made up our mind to work hard. A new beginning had to be made all over again. We started from zero again. Everyone finished their education there, and except me, everybody had a graduate degree. There too, illiteracy is not considered good. I think that there are two types of education. One is just to take a degree. And then begins the second type of study – the study of life. Bookish studies do not pay much, they act as only a base in life. Then you have to build your own house on that. If you study at Doon, IIT, and IIMs and still don’t know much about life, what is the use of such an education.

B&E: Today, you are the richest Indian in America. How did this success come about?
MB: We create an energy drink, which we call 5-Hour Energy. If you’re tired, you can take it and your exhaustion will disappear. It works for five hours, and after that you will return to your normal state. Last year, in the US, we sold 50 Million bottles of this drink. It costs $3 per bottle, or nearly Rs.165. I thought that if I am doing something, it has to be special. To make something new and special, you have to invest a lot of time and energy. So after talking to nearly two thousand people, we decided to start the business. Initially, the company manufactured the drink in big bottles. Later on, I thought that it’s a headache to buy the big bottles, so we created a smaller bottle. We kept on improving it. Today, the sixth generation of ‘5-Hour Energy’ is out in the market. The retail turnover of our business today is around a quarter of a billion dollars.

B&E: You came from a well to do family and there was no shortage of material possessions. Can handling this kind of wealth be difficult for people at times?
MB: I studied for nearly 12 years. After school I thought about the reasons why one needs to earn money. What should one do with it? That thought kept me occupied for a long time. Everyone has different kind of goals. I am not a show off and I do not have a thing for too many material possessions. There’s a saying in our land, that we don’t spend time, time spends us. We don’t indulge, indulgence indulges us. Still, if someone doesn’t learn and isn’t careful, he can’t be called intelligent.

B&E: Being a non-US trader, did you face any challenges there? If so, how did they impact your business?
MB: (Smiling) When you get down to wrestling, you have to do it with someone else. You can’t do it alone. I just thought that we have to do this and just started. We didn’t care about what will happen ahead.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

The alphabet of 2014

With the 2014 general elections looming large, the BJP has managed to quell an attempted revolt in the party ranks. But the collateral damage could have far-reaching repercussions

Let’s say she is a brilliant young political writer who thinks alliterations, symbols, analogies, synonyms, antonyms and metaphors are passé when it comes to analysing the far-in the-horizon Lok Sabha elections of 2014. What choice does she have? Let us say she decides to use English alphabets to forecast who would be the next PM in 2014. Let us hope that, unlike many political journalists today, she knows her alphabets.

She would have a tough time choosing between N and M. And she would, of course, know that there is another N that looms like a mythological warrior. She won’t be able to guess – despite her best efforts and lots of advice from television anchors – as to how another M would behave. People in WB have figured out that this M sometimes herself doesn’t know how she will act. She does know that another N who represents a state called O will not bother if M or N wins the race as long as he remains THE N in his state. And let us spare her and you the agony of other alphabets like J of TN, O of J&K, Y of AP and the original M of UP.

Confused? Actually, so are we. We – like you – know that voters like us are so mad at this so-called government being run by the UPA that we would love to vote against it in 2014. But which alphabet or set of alphabets do we vote for? The logical choice would be NDA, but the possible candidature of an N called Modi has already generated so many abusive and counter-abusive ‘expert opinions’ that we will let this N be; at least for now. That brings us back to that other N and that other M. If not Modi, N can only mean Nitish Kumar, CM of Bihar and the only true ‘secular warrior’ within the NDA fold. And if not Mamata/Mayawati, the M can only mean Mulayam Singh Yadav, the survivor who can teach a lesson or two to another cow belt chieftain called Lalu Yadav. There is a reason why M and N (Mulayam Singh & Nitish Kumar) have already started plotting their moves. Ask any Indian with even a little bit of common sense and it is doubtful if either would be their first choice as PM. But both M and N – like the one and only one heir apparent R – have history on their side. Our political journalist asks you with a wimpish smile – cross your hearts and admit it if you are old enough to remember. Did you, in your wildest dreams or never-ending nightmares, vote in 1996 for a prime minister called HDDG (software geeks, that is not hard drive... it is His Excellency HD Deve Gowda)? Even more bizarre, Indians actually did not vote for a do-gooder with a strange set of alphabets IKG. Our lady reporter was confused when she was told that IKG stands for a great pacifist called Inder Kumar Gujral, who was willing to sell India down the tube for the sake of peace with Pakistan. Did we hear Balle Balle? She was confused because sycophants who write about Congress told her that they had just played an alphabetic trick. First, they yanked the alphabet K from IKG and arrived at IG. They had to remove K because of someone called Sitaram “Kesari”. Then they realised that IG had long passed away. About a few million sycophants started looking for a simple replacement for I. They wanted something simple, which even political journalists could understand. So they settled on S and IG was replaced by SG. Of course, we must apologise on behalf of the lady reporter who appears a little overwhelmed with all these alphabets. We told her that SG has anointed another M. She promptly came back with some alphabets and epithets till we told her that this M is special because he is the only leader in the history of the world who leads without any ability or willingness to lead. Our reporter was thrilled and announced she is taking her poodle for a walk.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Saturday, April 27, 2013

Revisiting IT - beyond the street

Results of top Indian IT companies, with the exception of TCS, have sent shock waves across markets. But rather than worry about them, Indian IT companies must focus on structural reforms for long term advantage

There is a paradoxical advantage that Indian IT firms enjoy in the current situation due to their reliance on overseas (especially developed) markets rather than the domestic economy. They have been through one major crisis in 2008, when most of the domestic demand-dependent India Inc. was rejoicing in our economy’s prized ‘fundamentals’. This time, when the crisis shifts to the EU, one can expect that they are better prepared.

Did they manage to take advantage of precedent? Or have they wasted a good crisis, as the saying goes? Let us first look into the final results of the three IT companies that are a part of the B&E Power 100. TCS, of course, is a clear winner with revenues of $10.17 billion (growth of 24% yoy) and net profits of $2.2 billion (growth of 16% yoy); which places it at 4 in the B&E Power 100 list compared to 7 last year. Infosys reported slower growth with revenues at $6.99 billion (a growth of 15.77% % yoy) and profits at $1.72 billion (a growth of 12.64% yoy; ranked 6 in the B&E Power 100 compared to 11 last year). Wipro’s results were even more modest, as it posted revenues of $5.92 billion (a growth of 13.4% yoy) and net profit of $1.1 billion (a growth of 5% yoy, rank dropped to 18 in the B&E Power 100 from 17 last year).

The real investor challenge these players face is the burden of expectations. Infosys, in particular, is facing the brunt, since its Q4 results showed revenues of $1.77 billion (yoy growth of 10.5%) and a decline of 2% qoq. Furthermore, it gave a very modest guidance of 8-10% revenue growth for the current fiscal, which would underperform


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

‘Heins’ian economics at work...

Ever since moving into the corner office of the Waterloo based smartphone maker, Thorsten Heins has been struggling to undo the damage RIM suffered over the past few years. However, his two pronged strategy of consolidating the enterprise segment and leveraging emerging economies will take time to deliver results

It often happens that the ascent of most CEOs to the top is marked by public scrutiny, appreciation and sometimes outburst. However, Thorsten Heins, President & CEO, Research In Motion (RIM) has had a relatively subtle career as far as his media presence is concerned. When he was promoted to the top job in January 2012, analysts pointed out that “he’s not a well-known quantity.” A masters in science and physics from the University of Hannover in Germany, Heins started his career in 1984 straight out of college with Siemens AG where he was chief executive of various divisions including R&D, customer service, sales and product management. His last stint at the Munich-based multinational was that of Chief Technology Officer (CTO) before RIM recruited him as Senior Vice President of the handheld business unit in 2007. He quickly rose through the ranks and was made the Chief Operating Officer of Product and Sales in July 2011.

But ever since moving into the corner office of the Waterloo-based smartphone maker, Heins has undertaken an extensive strategic review of the business. And what he’s probably realised by now is that he has an awful lot on his plate. A case in point is RIM’s dwindling financial performance. From a high of $145 in 2008, RIM’s stock has tumbled down to $14 (a 90% fall). In 2011 alone, the stock lost around 80% of its value. What’s more – as per statistics compiled by IDC, BlackBerry devices held just 8.2% share of the global smartphone market at the end of Q4 2012 compared to 14% during the same quarter last year. In fact, despite the launch of multiple new BlackBerry 7 smartphone models, RIM’s revenue for Q4 2012 was $4.2 billion, down 19% from $5.2 billion in the previous quarter and down 25% from $5.6 billion in the same quarter of 2011.

Their problems are evident. Behind this heartbreaking free fall lies a blunder by RIM’s cofounders who despite launching great products failed to predict how the smartphone market would pan out in times to come. A look at RIM’s revenue pie makes it clear that the company’s business is divided into two major segments – enterprise solution and devices (smartphones and tablets). The enterprise segment makes up for 22% of the company’s revenue. The rest comes from smartphones and tablets. Given that RIM’s USP was its network infrastructure which made its enterprise solutions so lucrative to corporations, the company continued developing the kind of phones that would appeal to these clients. However, what they didn’t realise (or probably did but preferred to ignore) was that the sudden surge in sales of BlackBerry smartphones was not caused by companies signing up but because the mass market had started purchasing them. These were the consumers who were not looking for security but for appealing devices. The strategy worked well initially as there were hardly any smartphones in the market except RIM’s. But as soon as Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android operating system were launched in 2007, RIM’s devices started losing sheen. And before the company could realise what had happened, sales went for a toss.

The promoters who made these assumptions have left the company. And fortunately, Heins knows what went wrong. Therefore he now plans to bring back the company’s focus on the enterprise segment. During his first conference call, as CEO, with analysts last month, Heins said, “We believe BlackBerry cannot succeed if we try to be everybody’s darling and all things to all people.” At the end of 2011, over 90% of Fortune 500 companies had deployed the BlackBerry solution, with approximately 80% of these having an installed base of 500 or more devices. In concurrence with this strategy, RIM recently released the BlackBerry Mobile Fusion – an expanded version of its server software which will now support phones made by competitors as well. In an exclusive conversation with B&E, Michael Holt, a Senior Stock Analyst with Morningstar, expresses his confidence on RIM’s hold on the enterprise segment. “The BlackBerry is still the gold standard in certain corporate markets where premium security is valued. We expect it to retain that position for some time,” says Holt. So, is this a bad strategy? Depends on how you look at it. While on one hand this might indicate further shrinkage of BlackBerry devices in offices, but on the other it gives RIM an opportunity to pursue smartphones as an independent business.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Friday, April 19, 2013

“The opportunities for sustainability are immense”

Prof. Anant K. Sundaram, Faculty of Business Administration at the Tuck School of Business works with Senior Managers of companies on how their financial fundamentals and performance metrics drive market values and P/E ratios. In an exclusive conversation with B&E’s Amir Moin, Prof. Sundaram discusses the issue of sustainability and how companies can effectively implement it.

We live in a world that is undergoing rapid transition. For now, our setbacks are more or less financial and economic in nature. But as we further globalise amidst an explosion in population, the world that we know of will find itself encountering a completely different set of problems. It is therefore imperative that corporations around the world take up the issue of sustainability with urgency. In this exclusive conversation, Anant K. Sundaram, Professor of Business Administration at the Tuck School of Business, tells B&E, how companies should perceive sustainability and what they can do do make it an integral part of their business model.

B&E: Sustainability is something which a lot of companies promote now a days. While some are actually pursuing strategies that make sustainability a reality not just in terms of application but also profitability, others use it as a mask to look good. What is your view of sustainability and how is it helping the company’s bottom line?

Anant Sundaram (AS): Step back for a moment and think about what ‘sustainability’ means, since it is misused a lot. In a literal sense, it means ‘making something live forever.’ This, of course, is plainly impossible to do and hence not a terribly useful definition. The definition used in policy and NGO circles goes something like ‘meeting society’s needs today without compromising the needs of future generations.’ This, in turn, is a highly loaded definition: Who is to judge what anyone’s needs are? How can we know what future generations might need relative to today’s? The bottom line is, these traditional definitions of sustainability have a condescending, and frankly, impractical view about the world as it is and what people’s wants are. Corporations live in a practical world. They manage scarce resources and juggle the conflicting needs and imperatives of multiple constituencies, all with a view to create value. From their point of view, sustainability is fundamentally about meeting people’s wants for goods and services by consuming as limited a set of resources as possible, keeping their footprint associated with the side effects of such use minimal.

This means efficiently using air, water, minerals, metals, fossil fuels, and other natural (including biodiversity) resources, in a manner that mitigates – or even zeroes out – the footprint associated with pollution, waste, and emissions. Hundreds of good companies – whether it’s a Walmart trying to drive efficiencies in its supply chain, an Apple in its product design that emphasizes conservation, or an Infosys in its building and data center processes that obsesses over energy efficiency – adopt this view. Surely, there are some that will try to use it “as a mask” to look good. However, those will be short-lived efforts, perhaps even short-lived companies. At the end of the day, the ones that do not see the links between sustainability and efficiency will leave value-creation opportunities on the table, thereby not being able to compete against their more efficient peers. In the process, they will be the first to fall by the wayside.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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“I’m not going away anytime soon”

When 2007 began, Ford Motor Company was in one of the worst shapes amongst automakers. Then Alan Mulally walked in, conceptualised his ‘One-Ford’ strategy and even today, is working hard to implement his masterplan to earn maximum dollars in fast-growth markets. mulally in a conversation with B&E’s Pawan Chabra

After working at Boeing for over 26 years, Alan Roger Mulally took charge as the President and CEO of Ford Motor Company in September 2006. While he wasn’t the first choice for the top job at the auto major, under him the company managed a remarkable turnaround. Today, with less than two years left at the automaker, all eyes are on Mulally’s ‘One Ford’ strategy, and what more he can achieve with his plan in the days to come, especially in fast-growth markets. In an exclusive interview with B&E, Mulally shares his thoughts on the road ahead of Ford in India and his retirement & new launch plans.

B&E: You have unveiled the EcoSport in India, making it the second product to be launched in India under the ‘One Ford’ strategy. When can Indian consumers expect to buy it and what expectations do you have from the product?
Alan Mulally (AM): We chose India for the global premiere of the EcoSport, our compact SUV, because this market is very important for Ford Motor Company. We believe that it will become one of the three largest automobile markets across the globe by the end of this decade. The EcoSport will be sold in the Indian market during the later half of 2012 and it will also be exported to 30 different markets worldwide from India. To start with, it will be produced in India and Brazil. In total, the EcoSport will be sold in over 100 markets and it will be powered by the Ford’s revolutionary 1-litre ecoboost petrol engine. It will be available in both the petrol and diesel variants. We believe it will create a new segment in India as it has the flexibility of an SUV with the fuel efficiency that the modern consumer is looking for. Obviously, it marks the start of the implementation of our SUV plan for the Indian market.

B&E: The ‘One Ford’ strategy has been key to the turnaround tale of Ford Motor Company. Does the plan only help you cut costs by delivering economies of scale or is there much more to it?
AM: ‘One Ford’ is all about making one product for all the markets that we operate in. For instance, a Fiesta sold in Chennai will be made exactly the same way as the one that is sold in the US market. This strategy not only helps us gain economies of scale on the end of the suppliers, but also empowers us to bring more affordable products to the market. This is a very important strategy for Ford as the consumer today is looking for vehicles that are best in safety, quality and fuel efficiency at an affordable price. Roughly, today by using the One-Ford plan, what we have achieved is that over 60-80% of our global platforms are the same for producing vehicles across markets. As far as launches are concerned, under the One-Ford plan, we started with the Figo in 2010 and including the Figo and the EcoSport, we plan to launch eight new models in India by 2015.

B&E: The US auto market has almost recovered from what we saw during the days of recession, But EU is still a big concern. On the other hand, almost all automakers are bullish on the future of India and China. How will the coming years turn out for the auto industry?
AM: Europe is still a concern, but the governments there are making constant efforts to improve the situation. As a company, we expect the global automotive sales to increase by 5% a year at least for the next two years. The driver to this growth will be the Asia-Pacific region and mainly markets like India and China. At the end of 2010, close to 74 million vehicles were sold across the globe. It is expected that this number will go up to 100 million vehicles by the end of 2015. As far as India is concerned, it is one of the most important markets for Ford. The consumer is terrific. He is looking for value and fun to drive vehicles.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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